Thursday, October 30, 2008

Is Dow Jones reach bottom?


Base on the last 20 days chat, there's yet to see the break out! Yesterday Fed cut rate by 1%, market respond was closed down 74 points.
So far, we could see double bottom already form. What we need to see is break out of 9200 points. If market turn south, it would down to next 8100 strong support level.

For record purpose:
Gold price = 752
Oil = 66.

18 days after crash of Dow Jones

 This is the most scary market – one of my friend told me yesterday. Dow Jones Industry Index continuously down for 8 days without rebound. The record as below:

-19, -348, -157, -369, -508, -189, -678, -128

As of Oct 10, 2008, DJI closed at 8451, compare to 8 days ago 10,700. This indicate a down of 21% just in 8 days. For the next 10 days, only 2 of the days rebound, the rest all at down side. At the time of writing this article, Oct 27, 2008, DJI broke another low record of 8256. Seem that market had not found the bottom. According to one of the market watches, this is due to hedge fund and investor fear of worldwide recession.

Actually, if the properly burble came from US and Europe, there should be no reason for Asia to follow the down trend. However, what we see now is Asia also follow the same down trend. The only reason can explain was 2 years of Bull Market already came to the extend that it’s time and good reason for investor to leave the market for now. In US, we saw many big bank and Insurance Company file bankrupt due to burst of subprime burble. US government injected 700 billions into market but seem no sign of recovery. We notice these few days’ market very volatile; the high and low range can record 900 points!

 When the bad news came and market continue to go south, it’s the sign of bottom yet to be seen. However, few strange points would like to high light here for future record purpose.

The USD become stronger compares to EUR or others major currency. With the interest rate continue to go down, rising of USD seem to be no reason. The only point to explain could be investors think that holding other currencies might faced bigger risk compare to USD. Another point worth a look is JPY broke the 13 years high record against USD.

 On the commodity side, Gold and Oil price also record  year low of 713 / ounce and 63 / barrel. Tomorrow, I will post the chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average for purpose of studying if bottom already reach.

 Quote of the Day  

"I've never bought a stock unless, in my view, it was on sale."  - John Neff

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Loss money feel sad, earn money feel even pain, this kind of people not suitable invest in Stock Market


How to know one is suitable invest in Stock Market? I always joking tell my friends, when  noticed from news paper the stock you bought drop further till limit down again, take mirror and find yourself, if the face look bad, the eyes is red, please get the expert’s help, it could be you have overtrade. But you need to know your eyes is turning red or yellow… yellow could be hepatitis disease, go to see doctor immediately ya!

 Always I make a joke to my fried, go to take a photo before start investing in Stock Market. After buying some stock for 3 months, take another photo. Then compare the two photos, if before enter the Stock Market you look great, fresh, handsome or beauty, but the photo later look sad without spirit, bore, you know, it could be you have no faith with Stock Market! Go and take some other investment option.

 The volatile of Stock Market is very common, if one can not accept the price keep on moving down and feel sad till no appetite, this is yellow light! However when one day the Stock price moving up and you feel uneasy again, excited and can not sleep, this is red light! Go and put your money in the bank’s saving account!

Friday, September 12, 2008

Word of Wisdom for Stock Market


There is no Win or Lose, no Fear or Greed.
All you need to know is find the right opportunities in stock market and be aware of when the opportunities end. 

When price down, just buy without fear. When price up, sell and lock your profit without greed.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Market Down – How to Survive




Most of the investor knows the theory, “buy low, sell high.”  However, with the fear of an economic slowdown the market now moving up and down – volatility is back. The rapid downward movement makes it difficult for investors to fulfill the buy low sell high strategy. If you are not selling high, you are not freeing up cash to invest in the bargains that are becoming available in generally falling market.

 

However, there’s always active cash machine – dividend paying stocks become popular and powerful in down market. Those dividends get paid regardless of what direction stocks move. Less know, but important, is that dividends themselves can give you a tremendous rate of return, with no stock gains required. So even market stay flag or down for years, you can still get a decent return on your investment --- dividends. The true power and returns from dividends come from the rise over time as the companies behind those dividends grow and prosper.

 

In the down market, you can reinvest those dividends and accumulate more shares at cheaper prices. Or you can switch to an income strategy and take the cold, hard cash. You can rest assured that even as the market flips flops and falls, your cash will keep rolling in.

 

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Investing is similar to taste of Strong Wine

Many people like to ask, how much money should one invest into Stock Market is considered appropriate with good return? There’s no definite answer, to me, if one can afford to loss money in Stock Market and he can still enjoy the meal with good appetite, then it should be fine.

 Most of people enjoy drinking, not only one bottle, but kind of few bottles in one short. I don’t know how people really enjoy with this kind of bottom up drinking, but for sure, if buying Share with this kind of behavior, your pocket is going to bottom up! (Chinese say Gang Pei, let the glass empty)

 Actually, buying share is like tasting of X.O., little by little, with this slowness drinking, one can enjoy the process, taste it at least. Normally if drinking too much too fast, the only possibility is vomiting.

 

One should only invest with the money that intended to keep in Bank’s Fix Deposit account, say about 40% of net worth. Every month review the investment result before making any decision, in this case break your investment timing into separate portion, and don’t buy at one time. Again, look for long team… would like to use the investment Guru’s words, “Buy into the Company because you want to own it, not because you want the Stock to go up”. 

Sunday, August 3, 2008

The purpose of Investment

Many people when ask why they invest… the first answer is to earn money. Yes, many of the advisor or instructor when given speech on investment, the answer is “Making Money”. Is that so simple?
Few years ago, there’s an old man migrated to America, he felt life was boring there. As he didn’t know English, didn’t know how to drive, life was meaningless until he meat a man who told him to invest in Stock Market.
Temple Pagoda...
God never promise sky will always blue!
 
 At the years of eighty, he start to invest part of his money, about 100 thousand in stock market. Investing in stock market has changed his life. First, he started to read news paper. He subscribed to 3 news paper and search the dictionary on any word which he didn’t understand. After 3 years, his English standard had improved a lot! Beside, he start to listen to TV news in order not to miss out any important event. This had improved his English literacy as well.
 Quite strange, the hearing problem was being cured after few months watching and hearing TV news. The gastric problem also improved a lot and now he need to take one big bowl of rice for each meal. At night, he did home work, drawing chart, study PE ratio, reading company’s Financial Report and perform analysis.
 At last, someone ask, after so many year of investing, how much money did he earn? He say, still at the learning stage… after so many years, he lost 2 thousand. He further explained that he learn so many thing and feel life full of meaning. If 2 thousand can buy the happiness, this is very cheap lesson to pay for 2 thousand only.
 As investor, do you still think the purpose for investment is “making Money”? The main reason for investing should be enjoy life and increase value of it. Of course, if you can obtain both, then you are the most Happy Person in the world!

Saturday, July 19, 2008

The market is always wrong?



In the recent market crashes, the KLSE fell about 1150 points, a drop of 350 points within 6 months. When the overall market is coming down, analysis tend to lower the target selling price of a company and increase the target selling price when the overall market is trending higher.

Whenever stock market has a lot of uncertainties, all stocks good or poor fundamental stocks will hammered down. However, we always believe crisis means opportunities. The recent drop in market prices creates magnificent investment opportunities. Even though the market may drop further as there are still a lot of uncertainties and outstanding negative news pending announcement, we believe there is great opportunity for long-term investment.

Warren Buffer believes that stock market is manic depressive, it always overreacts to positive as well as negative news. If the overall market sentiment is good, the stock price may surge sky high. However if the stock market is depressive, the stock market may go down to very cheap price. The market is there to serve you and not to instruct you. It is not telling you whether you are right or wrong. The business results will determine that.” The key factor is to purchase right business at the right time.

As a investor, we should hold good quality stock for long term, as a result of recent market crash, these stock are not expensive anymore and the price now become quite attractive. We need to prepare ourselves by understanding the intrinsic value of the stock. We should stop predict when market will reach its bottom (as no one will know until it reach its bottom) and take the advantage of uncertainty.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Lessons from Warren Buffett’s guru


Phillip Fisher says he doesnt want a lot of good investments but a few good outstanding ones. 

Q: What can we learn from Philip Fisher?  

Philip A. Fisher, one of Warren Buffett’s investment gurus, is known for his philosophy on the qualitative aspects of selecting a good company for investment. Buffett learned qualitative analysis from him.  

Fisher got his early education at Stanford Business School . He joined an independent San Francisco bank as a securities analyst in 1928, and founded Fisher & Co, an investment rganizati business, in 1931.  

According to his book entitled Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, one of the most important investment philosophies from Fisher is Scuttlebutt, which he also calls “the business grapevine”, in investing.  

Scuttlebutt is the use of the business grapevine to analyse a company. We can obtain the information from customers, employees, suppliers, academics, trade association officers, industry observers, etc. This information is crucial in determining the character of its managers and the potential of the company.  

A good company should exhibit unquestionable management integrity, own highly competitive products, be in a healthy financial position, have good cost control and be effective in its research programme. 

According to Fisher, even though it is hard to know quality of management, a good management team should possess the ability to carry out day-to-day tasks efficiently and have good long-term planning. The management should also have high integrity and maintain good labour, personal and executive relations. 

Fisher is a believer of growth investing. We need to select stocks that have great potential to grow their businesses. It will be a waste of time to hold on to stocks that have no growth potential. He believes that we can get capital gains by buying into these companies as their stock prices would go up in line with the increase in their intrinsic value. 

It requires extensive research before you can get one. Fisher said: “I don’t want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones.” These companies can be bought at high historic price earnings ratio (PER) because there is a possibility that their stock price is reflecting good news you don’t know about yet. 

The growth companies should demonstrate strong and well-directed research capabilities. These companies should also exhibit an above-average sales organization. Besides, they need to have a sustainable profit margin and good return on capital. Normally, these companies are the market leaders in the industry and have the advantages of scale.  

A consistent and predictable dividend policy will provide the minimum returns to investors. Although high dividends are good for investors, to maintain business growth, high growth companies need to retain a certain level of profits for future expansion.  

If a company is paying dividends with little retained earnings, it will cause lower reinvestment, which will affect its long-term growth. As mentioned earlier, the main returns to an investor is capital gain. He believes that buying into high growth companies will provide the capital gain. 

When to sell 

Fisher believes in long-term investment. According to him, the most important thing is to select the right stocks. “If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is almost never,” he said. However, if we select the wrong stocks, we need to sell.  

We need to admit that we have made mistakes in our calculation. This attitude is important as not many retailers have the courage to admit their mistakes. Furthermore, we should not expect to be right all the time. We should be aware that we can make mistakes and we will make mistakes in our analysis, but more importantly, we need to learn from our mistakes.  

Fisher said: “The chief difference between a fool and a wise man is that the wise man learns from his mistakes, while the fool never does.” 

Fisher will only call a sell on a stock when the company or industry has changed and the stock no longer qualifies as a growth stock or a better prospect is available elsewhere. He will not sell a stock just because a stock appears to be selling for a significantly above average PER or because the stock price has increased.  

He believes that most investors always make mistakes by selling their stocks with the hope of buying them back at lower prices. In most instances, the investors miss the stock when it recovers. 

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Now Is a Fantastic Time to Be a Value Investor


The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its yearly low yesterday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are each down a minimum of 12% year to date, too -- and we're talking about broad-market indexes, including Bursa.

Now is a fantastic time to be a value investor. Really. With stocks so widely sold off, and with pessimism so pervasive, you should make like a bargain shopper and pick out a few of the values that seem to be screaming, "Buy me!"

Of course, it is always difficult to believe that stocks could possibly go up when every day they seem to edge lower. We're human, after all, and a constant downward spiral brings an overwhelming sense of loss and makes us remember prior market crashes, like the Nasdaq bubble at the beginning of this decade or the Black Monday Crash of '87. But if those memories make you want to shun the market, sell your stocks, and move to "safer" investments, let me be blunt: That's a recipe for disaster. The market crashes I alluded to before -- dot-coms and Black Monday -- were actually fantastic times to be net buyers of stocks. So although it may seem tough in today's chaos, now's the time to go shopping, because there are many superior companies trading at discount prices.

Citigroup recommends investor to buy shares in plantation, bank, telecommunications and property. "The market is trading at 11 times of next year's earnings after a 25 per cent fall this year. It looks very attractive. But no one looks at valuation now unless there is improvement on politics," he said. The broker has turned more bullish on Malaysia as it was convinced that recent policies, including the cut in petrol subsidy and the rise in power tariff are setting the country on the right path.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Resort - 2008 Quarter Review


Received the below article from one of the fried:
Income Statement - 
Nothing major sticks out like a sore thumb here when comparing Q1/08 to Q1/07. 
Revenue grew slightly. 
Cost of sales marginal growth. 
Gross Profits okay. 
Other Income and expenses steady. 
Profit from Operations Good. 
Finance cost small and improved. 
No more big loss from Star Cruises. 
Taxes okay. 

In short, diluted earnings of 5 sen for Q1/08 looks okay.


Balance Sheet - 
There's no question Resorts Balance Sheet is very strong. 

Total cash recorded under Current Assets is $3.2 Bn. 

Under Fixed Assets, there is another $1.4 Bn of what comprises mainly quoted securities. The "other long term investments" recorded at $0.5 Bn does not reflect unrealized gains (per 2007 Annual Report, although I'm not sure what the value is today). 

However, the sharp eyes amongst you will have noticed that the sum of these 4 items have actually decreased from Q1/07. The question is where did that money go?

A quick look at the current liabilities showed 2 improvements. 
1. Trade payables dropped from $0.49 Bn to $0.405 Bn. 
2. Short Term borrowings also dropped from $0.18 Bn to $0.08 Bn.

Overall, Net Assets dropped slightly from $1.43 to $1.37, or from $8.2Bn to $7.9Bn, or $0.3 Bn drop. 

It is clear this is more than explained by the bigger drop in Fixed Assets from $6Bn to $5.4Bn, or $0.6 Bn drop. 

I view the drop in Fixed Assets favorably since Fixed Assets is normally a playground for valuation "games" amongst experienced accountants. Personally, I like to see RESORTS trimming its fixed assets. 

However, I note there is capital commitment to the tune of $0.66 Bn ($0.21 Bn contracted, $0.45 Bn Not yet contracted).

RESORTS has 5.9 Billion shares. Net Cash ($B) = 0.90 + 0.51 +1.11 + 2.13 - 0.08 = $4.57 Bn, or 77 sen per share.

Overall, nothing too worrying sticking out like a sore thumb. 


CASHFLOW STATEMENT
Operating Profit Before Working Capital Changes increased, which is good. 

They've used the cashflow to reduce their current liabilities (payables and loans) which is good.

RESORTS continue to invest $0.09 Bn in Q1/08 into Plant, Property Equipement like prior year.

They also bought back shares this year. 

My quick glance at the price charts show that Q1/08 prices are higher than Q1/07 prices, although one needs to closely examine at what prices they've bought back. Somehow, I don't think they are doing a good job here, since prices now (July 2) is at this year's low. Whilst buybacks are generally seen as positive because they reduce the number of shares outstanding and increase earnings per share, the price they pay to buy back is also very important. Still $0.03 Bn hardly dents the Net Cash, but something to watch out for.

VALUATION

Valuation is actually complex, but a very quick and dirty one is to look at current price of $2.50, less net cash of $0.77 = $1.73. If we assume yearly earnings is $0.05 x 4 = $0.20, then, this implies a business P/E of 1.73 / 0.02 = 8.6, which is getting in the region of a "value" buy. If exclude the net cash, the quick and dirty P/E is $2.50 / 0.2 = 12.5, which is also getting "interesting".


FUTURE PROSPECTS
Short term challenging but within the general view of "steady". Nothing terribly exciting, but not bad. Very solid business. Genting Highlands business is secularly cyclical, but when the good times comes back, business will be bomming bigger than ever before, although exactly when is unclear.

Disclaimer: As usual, buy/hold/sell at your own risk.

Breath


我們有左邊、右邊鼻孔,吸氣、吐氣時有沒有一樣? We have left, right nose, is that the same for inhale and exhale? 其實不一樣,可以感覺不一樣;右邊等於是太陽的意思,左邊等於是月亮.

Actually they are different, can feel the difference; right side represent the sun, left side represent the moon.

 

平常頭痛時可以用手把右邊鼻孔關起來,只用左邊鼻孔吸氣、吐氣,約五分鐘, 頭痛就好了。

When having headache, try to close right nose and use your left nose to do your breathing, about 5 min, headache will be gone. &n bsp;

 

如果疲倦、累了,相反的關起左邊的鼻孔,只用右邊吸氣、吐氣,不用多久,馬上 精神好起了。

 

If you feel tired, do it the opposite round, close your left nose and breathe through your right nose. After a while, you will feel your mind is fresh again.

 

因為右邊屬於火氣,比較會熱,左邊比較會涼。

Right side belongs to heat, so it gets hot easily, left side belongs to cold.

 

女生大部分吸氣、吐氣在左邊,所以心比較會涼快。

Most of the girls breathe with their left nose, so their heart gets cold easily.

 

男生大部分吸氣、吐氣在右邊,所以他們比較會生氣。

Most of the guys breathe with their right nose, so they get angry easily

 

我們起床時,可以注意哪邊吸氣、吐氣比較快?左邊或右邊?

Do you notice the moment we wake up, which side breathes faster? Left or right?

 

如果左邊比較快,覺得提不起精神,可以關起左邊鼻孔,用右邊呼吸,很快的精神會好起來。

If left is faster, you will feel tired. So, close your left nose and use your right nose for breathing, you will get refresh quickly

 

這也可以教給小孩,大人用更好。如果你有警覺心的話,速度更快。

This can be taught to kids, but the effect will be better if apply by elders.

  

當時每天晚上都頭痛,沒有辦法看書,有吃藥,也不是辦法。

That time, every night I am having headache problem, not able to study, I did take medicine, but that is not a good way.

 

有一天晚上靜坐,關起右鼻孔呼吸,這樣子做,不到一個禮拜,頭痛好了!持續做了一個月,從那天晚上到現在,一次也沒有頭痛過。 One night, I sit down and close my right nose and breathe with left nose, less than one week, my headache problem is gone! I continue to do it for one month, from that night until today, headache does not attack me anymore.

 

這是我自己親身經驗過,每一次我告訴別人,你們頭痛的話,試試看,因為我的身體有效果,很多人試過也有效果。這是一種自然的處理,不像吃藥會有副作用,不用呢?

This is what I experienced myself, I told others, if headache, can try this way, because this is effective for me. Many people have tried and it works for them as well. This is a natural therapy, not like medicine, taking for long term will get side effect. So, why not try it out?

 

經常清楚的吸氣、吐氣,身體會覺非常輕鬆。

Always breath correctly, your body can feel very relax. 

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Tanjong - Potential grow stock?


大馬財經 業績評論  2008-06-24 12:00


(吉隆坡)丹絨(TANJONG,2267,主板貿服組)首季淨利符合及高於證券行預測,但分析員在大馬電力領域走勢預期放緩及此公司首季出現龐大開銷下調整其財測,惟海外電力業務貢獻依然看俏。

丹絨截至2008年4月30日首季淨利上漲81%至2億96萬7000令吉;受淨利上揚推動,該股週一(23日)以14令吉30仙報開,上揚10仙;更一度上漲30仙或2.1%至14令吉50仙,但閉市時漲幅收緊,僅能以14令吉20仙平盤掛收。

大馬研究指出,此公司首季淨利較該行預測高出14%,並較市場預測高24%。然而,在大馬電力市場盈利可能受創下,大馬研究下調丹絨2009年至2011年財政年盈利預測7至9%。

基於旗下Pahlawan電力廠於首季出現儲運損耗現象、海外電力資產的競標開銷及第二季即將配合維修而關閉廠房的因素影響下,2009年財政年的電力業務預期萎縮22%至3億4000萬令吉。

儘管大馬電力業務貢獻走低,但集團電力盈利依然預期上漲15%至8億9200萬令吉,主要動力來自GLOBELEQ資產支撐。此資產貢獻首季39%整體電力盈利,海外電力資產則貢獻70%營運盈利。

獨立發電廠(IPP)所徵收的暴利稅預期只會對這公司帶來極微影響。這是因為該公司超過50%電力業務盈利來自海外資產,而在高營運與維修開銷影響下,大馬的電力業務也預期不會出現驚人表現。

全年料派息1.07令吉

“股息派發預期維持吸引力,而全年預測達1令吉零7仙;首季總股息達17.5仙,比較同期的14仙。”

另外,分析員相信該公司已準備競標更多海外電力資產,而海外市場也預期在現有的經濟環境下出現更多電力廠買賣活動。

僑豐投資研究指出,丹絨的首季表現符合僑豐投資研究預測,主要受到GLOBELEQ資產的貢獻及較低的博彩派獎率推動,而首季淨利也包括脫售英國麥格理廣播控股權所獲得的6千200萬令吉投資賺益。

電力業務依然為這公司增長動力,並首次從去年收購的GLOBELEQ獲得全面貢獻。此公司首季電力業務營業額上漲49.5%,盈利則上揚26.1%。如果沒有納入旗下電力廠儲運損耗所帶來的影響,其增長率依然強勁。

博彩業的1.6%增長率與同期一樣,派獎率則為64%,比較前期的66%。

管理層透露,此公司正針對埃及電力資產的債務再融資事項進行籌備,而相關貸款被分為兩批發行,淨利息成本介於3.5%至3.8%,比較現有的6.33%至7.45%。根據計算,這可省下按年高達5600萬令吉的成本。然而,能否在現有環境下維持這低利率則無法預測。

亞歐美證券則披露,丹絨電力業務的營運盈利為2億令吉,按年上漲26%,但營運盈利賺幅下滑至34.9%,比較去年同期的41.5%。博彩業務的按年派獎率則為64.1%,比較一貫的65.5%派獎率,營運盈利達6240萬令吉。

休閒業務方面,其熱帶島嶼取得顯著盈利漲幅,因此營運虧損縮小至200萬令吉,主要動力來自成本稍減政策、品牌重塑活動及推出新吸引點。產業業務的營運盈利則達1100萬令吉,按年上漲13%。

分析員選擇調低其2009年至2010年財政年的核心淨利預測3.6%及0.8%,主要因為首季出現龐大開銷,並認為其派獎率將正常化至65.5%。

星洲日報/財經‧2008.06.24

Comment from Bloger's
This is what I learn about why we don't buy low and sell high. Stocks are only available for low price when majority of people hate it, the fear of losing more money. People will not fear for no reason, you must be mad if you're fearful for no apparent threats. The threats that most people perceive now are fear of changing government, fear of riots, fear of the US market crashes, fear of further credit implosion, fear of inflation, etc. Whole of KLSE is selling for 11 times PE at 1200, this is cheap, even cheaper when Malaysian market shunned by foreign investors after we imposed capital control. I'm sure Mark Mobius salivates now.

In the case of Tanjong, the revenue has been growing solidly with overseas power asset acquisitions but stock price seems to be bouncing around, even trending down lately. The latest acquisition in Bangladesh contributed another 90 mln in the latest quarter to the group's top line but not much contribution to bottom line due to development cost. Normalized profit contribution from Bangladesh operation will be around 100-120 mln. Tropical Island which has been the black sheep in the group has been showing improvement after launching new attractions, losses narrowed to 2 mln in the latest quarter. Going forward, I would estimate Tanjong will generate about 800 million PAT per annum without the IPP windfall tax. Even you shave off 75 mln in the worst scenario of IPP windfall tax, Tanjong will still generate about 725 mln PAT or EPS of 1.68. Apply 12 times PE, Tanjong worth at least RM 20/share.


Recession is Coming?


Recently receive below message from friends seem the source from CIMB:

Recession is coming ... make your own judgment, don't panic !! Do what is wise.
The recession looks very eminent. It is really time to take pro active steps to avoid a painful time in the next two years which is how long the recession is expected to last.


Suggestions:

1. Don't take any loans, buy homes, properties with loans, or even cash. Keep as much cash as possible.
2. Pay off as much of personal loans, private loans, as debt collection will be hastened.
3. Sell any stocks you can even at lower prices.
4. Take money off from Trust Funds.
5.  Don't believe in huge sales forecast from customers, be extremely prudent, lowest inventories, reduce liabilities.
6. Don't invest in new capital.
7. If you are selling homes/ properties/ cars , do it now, when you can get good prices, they are going to fall.
8.  Don't invest in new business proposals.
9. Cancel holiday plans using credit cards.
10. Don't change jobs, as companies will retrench based on 'last in first out'.
Stay cool, wait, and if you took all of the above actions and more, you probably will be better off then many.
This is not a rumor. Bear Stearns is the first of many banking and financial institutions that will start falling in the not too future. If Bear Stearns can fall, so can JP Morgan, Citibank, HSBC, and the whole world.
US economy falls, the rest will crumble. India and all those self economies will be the most protected, but not gullible. Europe may be a little stronger, but not China , another giant! Malaysia will see significant impact.


Comment: 

This should be a good time provide the value investor to pick up value stock at the very low price. 

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

How to Find Company's Historical Data

If you want to know how to find Malaysia's listed Co. Data, below link is a good recommendation:
 1. Search for Malaysia.
 2. If you want to seach for Maybank, then click on M
 3. Find "MALAYAN BANKING BHD" or key in "1155" and click on Quote / Search
 4. Click on Historical price
 5. U can also see the price for last 5 years & save in file
 6. U can view some of the Basic Chart
 7. U can save click "Add to Portfolio" so that next time u can go to my Portfolio and view the info easily.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Sleep with the lights off to reduce cancer risk


SLEEPING WITH LIGHT ON MAY CAUSE CANCER

KIDS who sleep with the light on could risk leukaemia, parents were
warned yesterday.

Scientists have found the body needs darkness to produce a chemical that
fights cancer.

Even switching the light on for the toilet, staying up late, travelling
across time zones, or the light from street lamps can stop enough
melatonin being made, they say.

The body needs the chemical to prevent damage to DNA and its absence stops fatty acids reaching tumours and preventing them growing. Texas University Prof Russell Reiter, who led the research, said: "Once you
go to bed you should not even switch the light on for a minute.

"Your brain immediately recognises the light as day and melatonin levels drop."

Rates of childhood leukaemia have doubled in the past 40 years.

About 500 youngsters under 15 are diagnosed with the disease each year and around 100 die. A conference on childhood leukaemia in London yesterday heard that people were being subjected to more light at night than ever..

This suppressed the production of melatonin which normally happens
between 9pm and 8am.

Past research has shown those most affected, like shift workers, had higher levels of breast cancer.

Blind people, who are not vulnerable to fluctuations of melatonin, have lower rates of cancer, it was found.

Parents are advised to use dim red or yellow bulbs if their youngsters
are scared of the dark.

"股市教父"胡立阳教你大赚小赔

秘技核心在于通过机械化操作克服人性弱点
  在长达3个多小时的演讲中,胡立阳向投资者透露了他的多个炒股秘技。这些秘技的核心就在于通过机械化操作来克服人性弱点,使自己在股市中变成"不正常的人"。
  胡立阳说,正常人在股市中没法赚到钱。根据他在股市33年的经验,全球投资者都具有相同的无法克服的人性弱点。假如在20元买入一只股票,这只股票第二天涨到22元,会很高兴。第三天涨到23元,还是没有问题。问题就在第四天发生,当这只股票跌到22元,投资者会开始患得患失。最危险的第五天来了,股票跌到21.8元,几乎没有一个例外,投资者都会在这里选择卖掉,结果错过了赚几倍甚至数十倍的机会。为了克服人性的弱点,他总结了多个招数让投资者机械化操作。他说,虽然市场不是绝对的,这些招数不能说百分百准确,但这都是他根据大量数据长期统计出来的。如果能严格遵照执行,长期来看一定有益处。
  封面联动
  1 "进三退一"华尔滋法
  高买低卖是股市中的铁律。如果做不到,那就每一交易要做到大赚小赔。因此,每购买一只股票就要将向下10%作为割肉点,向上30%作为盈利点。如这只股票20元,则26元作为盈利点,18元作为止损点,哪个点先到就卖哪个。没有达到"一定要把手捆起来"。根据他的统计,几乎所有好股票涨30%都会修整一下,所以休息一下以后再把它买回来也没关系。一只好股票如果跌了10%,就往往是出了问题,或者这只股票和投资者没有缘分,切莫强求。
  2 农夫播种术
  所有好股票涨势价格图都是大赚小赔。因此,在买一只股票的时候,资金量不要超过1/3.假如你最初购买这只股票以一手为单位,那么股价每往上涨3%就加一手,往下跌超过3%就减一手。一定要用相同的单位追加,切忌涨了3%的时候多追几手,结果头重脚轻从而被套。根据统计,在一般的多头行情下,每12只股票中总有1只能成倍增长,这种方法就是要留下好种子剔除坏种子。假如买了20只股票,只有1只成倍增长,用这种方法就能留下这1只,并及时剔除剩下的19只,最终这一只的盈利能盖过所有的损失甚至还要多。使用这种方法的时候,一定要以每天收盘价为准,然后在第二天一开市就以市价操作。这次A股市场从6000点跌到3000点,使用这种方法留下的种子不会发芽,但也不会大赔。当所有的种子都不发芽时,就证明不是播种子的好时候,应暂时退场。
  3 短线操作
  做短线一定要技术,并不赞成炒短线。如果非要炒,那么切记买进股票三天不赚钱就卖掉。因为根据统计,一个好股票绝对是每隔三天、两天就要创新高,绝对不可能停下来休息个三五天再创新高。如果买的股票每天都涨,突然第四天跌了一天,那么要不要卖?答案是只要跌幅不超过7%,就不要卖掉。但是如果第二天继续跌,则一定要卖掉。
  4 牧羊术
  研究股票要像养羊一样投入感情。研究的股票不要多,只看二三十只,不熟悉的不要买。熟悉之后判断这只股票是健康还是生病,就要把握三个基本原则:首先,跟大盘比较。如上证指数上涨150点,这只股票还是下跌1毛钱,证明这只股票"生病了"。其次,看成交量。如果这只股票每天成交量都萎靡不振,但突然有一天成交量大于过去6日均量的3倍以上,这就是股票上涨的前奏,然后再给它5个交易日,只要成交量能创新高,则可以毫不犹豫跟进,这就叫做"旱地拔葱"。再次,价格脱离常规。如果这只股票长期以来都在20元、21元来回振荡,有一天突然多涨1块钱,一定会大涨。
  5 懒人操作术
  会卖股票才是真本事。对于繁忙的上班族来说,想要不花太多时间也能赚钱,可以使用懒人操作术。即每周抽一个时间,随便选5只股票,并均设立10%止损位。过一周后进行统计,只留下涨得最好的第一名和第二名,其他全部卖掉。然后再随便补充三只股票,让数量达到5只,过一周后再如此操作。用这种方法就能强迫自己留下最好的股票。因为对绝大多数投资者来说,会卖掉已经赚钱的最好的股票,往往留下跌得最多的股票,以求"解套",这是错误的做法。
  6 地心引力指标
  (30日移动平均线+72日移动平均线)/2就是大盘指数的"地心引力指标"。以此线为标准,涨过10%就跑,跌过10%就买入,准确率可达到95%.个股则因为有庄家相对麻烦。对于个股,也可以通过此方法划出"地心引力指标",并同时配合成交量的"旱地拔葱"来作出判断。
  7 1/2法
  根据统计。如一只股票从30元开始上涨到60元,那么45元(即:(30+60)/2)就是股价的第一个强烈支撑点,如果45元支撑不住,意味着该股票走入弱势格局。第二道关卡则是37.5元,(即:(30+45)/2),一旦跌破则是熊的开始。个股如此,大盘也如此。一旦这只股票跌破第二道关卡,就要坚决出货。通过补仓摊低成本是不对的。反弹也可以通过此方法来判断。如60元的股票下跌到30元,则第一道反弹关卡是45元,若反弹超过45元还往上涨,就是强势反弹。第二道关口则是52.5元(即:(60+45)/2),如超过则进入牛市。虽然市场不是100%绝对,但长期来看1/2法非常有价值

Friday, June 13, 2008

Finance Asia - Asia Best Manage Company

Finance Asia - For our eighth annual poll of Asia's top companies we have collected votes from 167 investors and analysts across the region. The results will be published country by country over a two-week period and the final day will also reveal which companies are viewed to be the best managed in the region in eight key sectors.

Here are the results for Malaysia.


Best managed companyVotes
1. Public Bank39
2. CIMB24
3. IOI Corp21
4. Genting18
5. Digi14
6. Maybank14
7. Petronas Gas11
8. SP Setia10
9. BAT Malaysia9
Best corporate governanceVotes
1. Public Bank46
2. CIMB25
3. Digi20
4. Maybank16
5. BAT Malaysia13
6. IOI Corp12
7. Telekom Malaysia10
8. Media Prima8
9. MMC Corp7
Best investor relationsVotes
1. Public Bank36
2. Digi31
3. CIMB26
4. Sime Darby23
5. Maybank13
6. Tanjong10
7. Media Prima8
8. Genting8
Most committed to a strong dividend policyVotes
1. Public Bank47
2. BAT Malaysia36
3. Maybank18
4. Tanjong16
5. IOI Corp15
6. Petronas Gas5
Best mid-capVotes
1. Media Prima17
2. Air Asia13
Best small-capVotes
1. Masteel13
2. Deleum9
Best CFOVotes
1. Gerard Nathan (Tanjong)17
2. Stefan Carlsson (Digi)11

Wednesday, May 7, 2008


Tips on Filling your Vehicle

Receive the below from one of the friend:
BUY OR FILL UP YOUR CAR OR BIKKIE IN THE EARLY MORNING WHEN THE GROUND TEMPERATURE IS STILL COLD. Remember that all service stations have their storage tanks buried below ground. The colder the ground, the denser the fuel, when it gets warmer petrol expands, so buying in the afternoon or in the evening.... your litre is not exactly a litre.

FILL UP WHEN YOUR TANK IS HALF FULL. The reason for this is, the more fuel you have in your tank, the less air occupying its empty space. Petrol evaporates faster than you can imagine. Petroleum storage tanks have an internal floating roof. This roof serves as zero clearance between the petrol and the atmosphere, so it minimizes the evaporation.

WHEN YOU'RE FILLING UP, DO NOT SQUEEZE THE TRIGGER OF THE NOZZLE TO A FAST MODE. If you look, you will see that the trigger has three (3) stages: low, middle, and high. In slow mode, you should be pumping on low speed, thereby minimizing the vapours that are created, while you are pumping. All hoses at the pump have a vapour return. If you are pumping on the fast rate, some of the liquid that goes to your tank becomes vapour. Those vapours are being sucked up and back into the underground storage tank so you're getting less worth for your money.

ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT TIPS IS TO FILL UP WHEN YOUR TANK IS HALF FULL. The reason for this is, the more fuel you have in your tank, the less air occupying its empty space. Petrol evaporates faster than you can imagine. Petroleum storage tanks have an internal floating roof. This roof serves as zero clearance between the petrol and the atmosphere, so it minimizes the evaporation.

IF THERE IS A FUEL TRUCK PUMPING INTO THE STORAGE TANKS, WHEN YOU STOP TO BUY, DO NOT FILL UP - most likely the petrol/diesel is being stirred up as the fuel is being delivered, and you might pick up some of the dirt that normally settles on the bottom.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Why Public Bank still a good BUY?

In today’s competitive environment, cost will be the effective way to judge how good one bank is. In this area, Public Bank is the most successful bank for Malaysia (33% compare to HLB 42% & MB 44%). Most of the staffs are hard working, thanks to the management who taking care of their staff well being.  In return, with this kind of working environment, create a good chain reaction.

 If you will to ask around what’s the most quality bank in terms of service efficiency, people mostly give you the answer, Public Bank. Yes, today if you go to Public Bank’s counter, within 5 minutes, you will be called. Even if the queue is so long, the manager will come forward and provide their service.  As a result, it managed to retain the existing customers as well as attracting new business.

 It has the lowest non performing loan (NPL) in the country (1.2% compare to average of 3.1% for industry). Thanks to the risk management policy and practice. When came the loan application process, if the amount is more than 3 million, uncle Teh will personally review the application, even though the team already pass the recommendation.  In this case, one should not compare Citigroup with Public Bank, since you never see Citigroup CEO personally review the application. Hence the risk is less for Public Bank to fall into the financing difficulties with its superior asset quality.

 Why Public Bank able to maintain the high ROE of 17 to 20%? Thanks to the loan growth and the operational efficiency. For the past 3 years, management have giving away most of the earning in terms of Dividend, last year, it paid 75 cents per share. This will give one Dividend Yield of 7% base on stock price of RM10.90.

For the time being, you may not find any of the other bank in Malaysia which beat Public Bank for all the above points. Hence, if one would to look for buying stock in Banking Industry, which one would he go for?

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Reasons why Public Bank not a good buy?

The below interesting article post by 黑俠:
PBBANK是馬來西亞管理最好的銀行!廢話,這大家都懂,但到底怎樣好法? 存款增長快,貸款額增長快;帶動收益增長,但呆帳只有1.23;因呆帳低,所以股東與資產回報為同行最高;資本適足比率處於良好水平,達13.6%;而且派息率高......旗下的信托業務,名譽為同行之最;保險業務的綜合比例低。PBBANK是好公司,無可質疑的,它也是唯一沒在97/98金融風暴出現虧損的銀行,這麼多好處,現在是否值得投資呢?


PBBANK的潛在隱憂

「專業」分析員稱PBBANK雖然是大資本公司,但仍高速成長,為此振奮不已!其實,PBBANK2003年開始,成長已經開始出現不平衡了!實際成長可說已暗藏日後的「危機」(「危機」這詞可能有些誇張),先看看PBBANK的盈利:

1995303,400 1996408,000 1997274,900 

199851,226 1999616,141

PBBANK97/98金融風暴後,在1999年就恢復風暴前的盈利,甚至遠遠超越風暴前

2000716,865 2001700,078 2002770,237 

2000-2002年,盈利增長緩慢,陷入停滯,複增長率是3.4%

2003974,186 20041,266,988 20051,450,281 

20061,795,161 20072,201,786 

2008首季=扣除Goddwill Payment,實際盈利517,387,比去年同期增長8.6

20032008首季,盈利出現驚人成長,複增長率是23%

PBBANK的股價也從2003年中擺脫盤整,開始了上升旅途。

PBBANK的派息率,一直以來都在50%左右

進入2004年,派息率高達167%200590%200684%

200788%4年支付的股利高達6,887,066(6887百萬)

各位PBBANK的股東是否感覺很爽???

但是,「危機」就此種下了!銀行是如何提高盈利的,方法可以說出一大堆,但若要穩健的成長,就是資本必須不斷的增加,資本增加,才能做更多生意,若資本不增加,再怎樣成長,都有一定的侷限。而PBBANK的股東投入資本,自1995年的2,117,500,經過金融風暴,仍可穩建成長至2003年的8,617,795。但自2004年開始了高股利政策,至2008年首季,只有8,757,697,可見投入資本沒增加。投入資本沒增加,那PBBANK2004-2007盈利是如何年增長23%的呢?

答案是:外求資本!這期間,PBBANK的資本增加了86,011,703(860)

其中:銀行存款增加72,254,014(722),發行新股1,505,062(15),發行次級票據2,829,055(28)2008起未來5又發行50次級票據(Subordinated Notes)這本來沒問題,銀行本來就是「借錢滾錢」「財務槓桿」行業,PBBANK的呆帳率仍很低,但是,資產回報率卻從未派發高股利時的1.50%,跌至2007年的1.26%

這裡我嚴重聲明,PBBANK的爛賬還是很低,資產回報還是很高,甚至是同行之最。盡然如此,還有什麼問題呢?

PBBANK目前看不出問題,但關鍵在於,財務槓桿總有一個極限,否則會造成抵禦災難來臨的能力下降,而且一旦監管失誤,就會造成嚴重損失!多數人有種錯誤觀念,認為銀行很穩定,其實,只要了解銀行是如何賺錢,就知道銀行的風險很高!請想一下,日本80年代末經濟泡沫爆裂後的銀行;2007年的美國次級房貸危機,多少間金融機構遭殃,其中包括世界最大的銀行CITI GROUPPBBANK過往的財務槓桿情況如下:

199515.6 199614.8 199714.5

PBBANK金融風暴前的財務槓桿

199812.9 199911.5 200010.0 

20018.5 20029.0 20037.5

金融風暴後財務槓桿逐漸降低

200410.7 200513.1 200616.3 200718.6 

因高股利政策,導致收益無法留存,債務提高了860億,財務槓桿越來越高,超越了金融風暴前的水平,若無高股利政策的話,那股本約有11,927,839,財務槓桿約有14.9倍 如果銀行過度的運用財務槓桿,會增加經營風險,一旦經濟環境轉壞,或者為追求短期利潤而忽視風險,如過度放貸、投資衍生產品、資產證券化等,財務槓桿擴大,潛在風險增加,以下是CITI GROUP的財務槓桿變化:

200013.6 200112.9 200212.6 200312.9

200413.5 200512.2 200615.7

2001發生911,進入低利率時代,2006-07年為抗通膨,轉為升息

200719.2----->>次貸爆發,CITI GROUP虧損幾百億美金。

你們知道CITI GROUP在次貸爆發前,財務狀況如何嗎?

呆帳率  =1.32%(夠低吧?) 資產回報1.14%(收益優良)

資本適足率=11.65%(高於標準) 風險加權資本比率=5.16%(高於標準)

雖然在執行巴塞爾II條例和沒有強制轉移25%的常年盈利至法定儲備下,PBBANK的資本比率料也將獲得提升。其銀行風險加權資本比率(RWCR)和資本適足率(CAR),料將可分別取得70個基點和50個基點的增長。但是,鑒於CITI GROUP的例子,

可見這些衡量風險的計算方法,不能充分反映出未來的潛在風險!


PBBANK的價值估算

PBBANK最新財務數字對比股價是(截筆時):

股價:RM11.40 對比 NTARM 2.614.37

股價:RM11.40 對比 2007 EPSRM 0.62918本益比

股價:RM11.40 對比 2008 EPSRM 0.69016本益比(個人預估)

因行業結構問題,銀行利潤再怎樣高,都有個界限,其股價不應超過NTA3,而PBBANK卻有4.37,顯然過於昂貴..PBBANK股價太高,投資風險性較高..如果現在買進PBBANK,那你是多付個月的錢,先為2008未知的業績埋單!假PBBANK可繼續最少年以最少15%的盈利成長,那現在買PBBANK肯定能賺到錢!前提是未來成長可持續..我估計今年盈利約2,222,8232,380,288EPSRM 0.66RM 0.71之間


PBBANK成長真的沒問題嗎?

PBBANK在發行新的50次級票據後,財務槓桿會高達20 / 21倍,就風險管理而言,已到了頂限!2008股市低迷,相信它的信託銷售及股票相關業務,盈利縮減可能性高;

建築領域放緩,不少大型計劃的取消,會減少借貸活動;PBBANK近期宣布與ING保險公司合作通過本身的基建設備和網絡在全國銷售ING保險的銀行保險產品,分析員估計可提高PBBANK08財政年和09財政年的盈利4.5%4.2%每年可達70億至100億。簡而言之,PBBANK的未來成長,還是有不少未知因素!我早前說過,成長需要資本,PBBANK的資本雖提高,但卻是建立在激烈的財務槓桿運作,實際上已達極限,若不控制降溫,隨時有引火燒身的風險,何況誰能知道大環境何時轉壞呢?因本地成長空間已經飽和,新市場已不多,只能努力開拓殘渣和搶對手的市場海外的盈利雖增長31.5%,但佔集團2006年的稅前盈利13.7%,只微升到2007年的14.5%,短期不可能給PBBANK帶來顯著成長2004年以來的成長,主要還是建立在高財務槓桿下,長期下去是無法持續的,估計其盈利成長會緩慢下來!若它還出現快速成長的情況,那絕非好事,反而更加危險,財務槓桿不斷提高,只要時辰一到,必然遭到反噬!所以,別以為PBBANK的盈利成長遠大於同行,一定是好事,這是要付出代價的!PBBANK要降溫,必須要先犧牲短暫的盈利,以及股價的下跌

1.減少股利,降至30%以下的派息率

 但這會引發股東不滿,造成股價下跌!像某證券分析員說:PBBANK未來5年發售50億令吉的次要債券將可增加該集團的股息派發額。可見重視短期利益之心態多熱烈,完全忽視長期風險

2.加強風險管理,複查貸款素質

3.減少財務槓桿的借貸投資,努力增加股本


PBBANK投資者該如何處理?

如果一早投資PBBANK那不隨意賣出,只要好消息不斷,股價會起,就守住但要知道潛在風險所在,一旦發現增長趨緩、財務槓桿越發嚴重,或感覺不對,就賣出! 至於沒買進還是別買,反正好股票又不只1個......

PBBANK就像一輛失衡的駟馬車,一隻急奔;一隻吃力追趕;一隻緩慢行走;一隻停下吃草; 這樣的馬車,你認為能跑多快?跑多遠?唯有停下調整步伐,才能穩健行走,否則必然出事!