Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Tanjong - Potential grow stock?


大馬財經 業績評論  2008-06-24 12:00


(吉隆坡)丹絨(TANJONG,2267,主板貿服組)首季淨利符合及高於證券行預測,但分析員在大馬電力領域走勢預期放緩及此公司首季出現龐大開銷下調整其財測,惟海外電力業務貢獻依然看俏。

丹絨截至2008年4月30日首季淨利上漲81%至2億96萬7000令吉;受淨利上揚推動,該股週一(23日)以14令吉30仙報開,上揚10仙;更一度上漲30仙或2.1%至14令吉50仙,但閉市時漲幅收緊,僅能以14令吉20仙平盤掛收。

大馬研究指出,此公司首季淨利較該行預測高出14%,並較市場預測高24%。然而,在大馬電力市場盈利可能受創下,大馬研究下調丹絨2009年至2011年財政年盈利預測7至9%。

基於旗下Pahlawan電力廠於首季出現儲運損耗現象、海外電力資產的競標開銷及第二季即將配合維修而關閉廠房的因素影響下,2009年財政年的電力業務預期萎縮22%至3億4000萬令吉。

儘管大馬電力業務貢獻走低,但集團電力盈利依然預期上漲15%至8億9200萬令吉,主要動力來自GLOBELEQ資產支撐。此資產貢獻首季39%整體電力盈利,海外電力資產則貢獻70%營運盈利。

獨立發電廠(IPP)所徵收的暴利稅預期只會對這公司帶來極微影響。這是因為該公司超過50%電力業務盈利來自海外資產,而在高營運與維修開銷影響下,大馬的電力業務也預期不會出現驚人表現。

全年料派息1.07令吉

“股息派發預期維持吸引力,而全年預測達1令吉零7仙;首季總股息達17.5仙,比較同期的14仙。”

另外,分析員相信該公司已準備競標更多海外電力資產,而海外市場也預期在現有的經濟環境下出現更多電力廠買賣活動。

僑豐投資研究指出,丹絨的首季表現符合僑豐投資研究預測,主要受到GLOBELEQ資產的貢獻及較低的博彩派獎率推動,而首季淨利也包括脫售英國麥格理廣播控股權所獲得的6千200萬令吉投資賺益。

電力業務依然為這公司增長動力,並首次從去年收購的GLOBELEQ獲得全面貢獻。此公司首季電力業務營業額上漲49.5%,盈利則上揚26.1%。如果沒有納入旗下電力廠儲運損耗所帶來的影響,其增長率依然強勁。

博彩業的1.6%增長率與同期一樣,派獎率則為64%,比較前期的66%。

管理層透露,此公司正針對埃及電力資產的債務再融資事項進行籌備,而相關貸款被分為兩批發行,淨利息成本介於3.5%至3.8%,比較現有的6.33%至7.45%。根據計算,這可省下按年高達5600萬令吉的成本。然而,能否在現有環境下維持這低利率則無法預測。

亞歐美證券則披露,丹絨電力業務的營運盈利為2億令吉,按年上漲26%,但營運盈利賺幅下滑至34.9%,比較去年同期的41.5%。博彩業務的按年派獎率則為64.1%,比較一貫的65.5%派獎率,營運盈利達6240萬令吉。

休閒業務方面,其熱帶島嶼取得顯著盈利漲幅,因此營運虧損縮小至200萬令吉,主要動力來自成本稍減政策、品牌重塑活動及推出新吸引點。產業業務的營運盈利則達1100萬令吉,按年上漲13%。

分析員選擇調低其2009年至2010年財政年的核心淨利預測3.6%及0.8%,主要因為首季出現龐大開銷,並認為其派獎率將正常化至65.5%。

星洲日報/財經‧2008.06.24

Comment from Bloger's
This is what I learn about why we don't buy low and sell high. Stocks are only available for low price when majority of people hate it, the fear of losing more money. People will not fear for no reason, you must be mad if you're fearful for no apparent threats. The threats that most people perceive now are fear of changing government, fear of riots, fear of the US market crashes, fear of further credit implosion, fear of inflation, etc. Whole of KLSE is selling for 11 times PE at 1200, this is cheap, even cheaper when Malaysian market shunned by foreign investors after we imposed capital control. I'm sure Mark Mobius salivates now.

In the case of Tanjong, the revenue has been growing solidly with overseas power asset acquisitions but stock price seems to be bouncing around, even trending down lately. The latest acquisition in Bangladesh contributed another 90 mln in the latest quarter to the group's top line but not much contribution to bottom line due to development cost. Normalized profit contribution from Bangladesh operation will be around 100-120 mln. Tropical Island which has been the black sheep in the group has been showing improvement after launching new attractions, losses narrowed to 2 mln in the latest quarter. Going forward, I would estimate Tanjong will generate about 800 million PAT per annum without the IPP windfall tax. Even you shave off 75 mln in the worst scenario of IPP windfall tax, Tanjong will still generate about 725 mln PAT or EPS of 1.68. Apply 12 times PE, Tanjong worth at least RM 20/share.


Recession is Coming?


Recently receive below message from friends seem the source from CIMB:

Recession is coming ... make your own judgment, don't panic !! Do what is wise.
The recession looks very eminent. It is really time to take pro active steps to avoid a painful time in the next two years which is how long the recession is expected to last.


Suggestions:

1. Don't take any loans, buy homes, properties with loans, or even cash. Keep as much cash as possible.
2. Pay off as much of personal loans, private loans, as debt collection will be hastened.
3. Sell any stocks you can even at lower prices.
4. Take money off from Trust Funds.
5.  Don't believe in huge sales forecast from customers, be extremely prudent, lowest inventories, reduce liabilities.
6. Don't invest in new capital.
7. If you are selling homes/ properties/ cars , do it now, when you can get good prices, they are going to fall.
8.  Don't invest in new business proposals.
9. Cancel holiday plans using credit cards.
10. Don't change jobs, as companies will retrench based on 'last in first out'.
Stay cool, wait, and if you took all of the above actions and more, you probably will be better off then many.
This is not a rumor. Bear Stearns is the first of many banking and financial institutions that will start falling in the not too future. If Bear Stearns can fall, so can JP Morgan, Citibank, HSBC, and the whole world.
US economy falls, the rest will crumble. India and all those self economies will be the most protected, but not gullible. Europe may be a little stronger, but not China , another giant! Malaysia will see significant impact.


Comment: 

This should be a good time provide the value investor to pick up value stock at the very low price. 

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

How to Find Company's Historical Data

If you want to know how to find Malaysia's listed Co. Data, below link is a good recommendation:
 1. Search for Malaysia.
 2. If you want to seach for Maybank, then click on M
 3. Find "MALAYAN BANKING BHD" or key in "1155" and click on Quote / Search
 4. Click on Historical price
 5. U can also see the price for last 5 years & save in file
 6. U can view some of the Basic Chart
 7. U can save click "Add to Portfolio" so that next time u can go to my Portfolio and view the info easily.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Sleep with the lights off to reduce cancer risk


SLEEPING WITH LIGHT ON MAY CAUSE CANCER

KIDS who sleep with the light on could risk leukaemia, parents were
warned yesterday.

Scientists have found the body needs darkness to produce a chemical that
fights cancer.

Even switching the light on for the toilet, staying up late, travelling
across time zones, or the light from street lamps can stop enough
melatonin being made, they say.

The body needs the chemical to prevent damage to DNA and its absence stops fatty acids reaching tumours and preventing them growing. Texas University Prof Russell Reiter, who led the research, said: "Once you
go to bed you should not even switch the light on for a minute.

"Your brain immediately recognises the light as day and melatonin levels drop."

Rates of childhood leukaemia have doubled in the past 40 years.

About 500 youngsters under 15 are diagnosed with the disease each year and around 100 die. A conference on childhood leukaemia in London yesterday heard that people were being subjected to more light at night than ever..

This suppressed the production of melatonin which normally happens
between 9pm and 8am.

Past research has shown those most affected, like shift workers, had higher levels of breast cancer.

Blind people, who are not vulnerable to fluctuations of melatonin, have lower rates of cancer, it was found.

Parents are advised to use dim red or yellow bulbs if their youngsters
are scared of the dark.

"股市教父"胡立阳教你大赚小赔

秘技核心在于通过机械化操作克服人性弱点
  在长达3个多小时的演讲中,胡立阳向投资者透露了他的多个炒股秘技。这些秘技的核心就在于通过机械化操作来克服人性弱点,使自己在股市中变成"不正常的人"。
  胡立阳说,正常人在股市中没法赚到钱。根据他在股市33年的经验,全球投资者都具有相同的无法克服的人性弱点。假如在20元买入一只股票,这只股票第二天涨到22元,会很高兴。第三天涨到23元,还是没有问题。问题就在第四天发生,当这只股票跌到22元,投资者会开始患得患失。最危险的第五天来了,股票跌到21.8元,几乎没有一个例外,投资者都会在这里选择卖掉,结果错过了赚几倍甚至数十倍的机会。为了克服人性的弱点,他总结了多个招数让投资者机械化操作。他说,虽然市场不是绝对的,这些招数不能说百分百准确,但这都是他根据大量数据长期统计出来的。如果能严格遵照执行,长期来看一定有益处。
  封面联动
  1 "进三退一"华尔滋法
  高买低卖是股市中的铁律。如果做不到,那就每一交易要做到大赚小赔。因此,每购买一只股票就要将向下10%作为割肉点,向上30%作为盈利点。如这只股票20元,则26元作为盈利点,18元作为止损点,哪个点先到就卖哪个。没有达到"一定要把手捆起来"。根据他的统计,几乎所有好股票涨30%都会修整一下,所以休息一下以后再把它买回来也没关系。一只好股票如果跌了10%,就往往是出了问题,或者这只股票和投资者没有缘分,切莫强求。
  2 农夫播种术
  所有好股票涨势价格图都是大赚小赔。因此,在买一只股票的时候,资金量不要超过1/3.假如你最初购买这只股票以一手为单位,那么股价每往上涨3%就加一手,往下跌超过3%就减一手。一定要用相同的单位追加,切忌涨了3%的时候多追几手,结果头重脚轻从而被套。根据统计,在一般的多头行情下,每12只股票中总有1只能成倍增长,这种方法就是要留下好种子剔除坏种子。假如买了20只股票,只有1只成倍增长,用这种方法就能留下这1只,并及时剔除剩下的19只,最终这一只的盈利能盖过所有的损失甚至还要多。使用这种方法的时候,一定要以每天收盘价为准,然后在第二天一开市就以市价操作。这次A股市场从6000点跌到3000点,使用这种方法留下的种子不会发芽,但也不会大赔。当所有的种子都不发芽时,就证明不是播种子的好时候,应暂时退场。
  3 短线操作
  做短线一定要技术,并不赞成炒短线。如果非要炒,那么切记买进股票三天不赚钱就卖掉。因为根据统计,一个好股票绝对是每隔三天、两天就要创新高,绝对不可能停下来休息个三五天再创新高。如果买的股票每天都涨,突然第四天跌了一天,那么要不要卖?答案是只要跌幅不超过7%,就不要卖掉。但是如果第二天继续跌,则一定要卖掉。
  4 牧羊术
  研究股票要像养羊一样投入感情。研究的股票不要多,只看二三十只,不熟悉的不要买。熟悉之后判断这只股票是健康还是生病,就要把握三个基本原则:首先,跟大盘比较。如上证指数上涨150点,这只股票还是下跌1毛钱,证明这只股票"生病了"。其次,看成交量。如果这只股票每天成交量都萎靡不振,但突然有一天成交量大于过去6日均量的3倍以上,这就是股票上涨的前奏,然后再给它5个交易日,只要成交量能创新高,则可以毫不犹豫跟进,这就叫做"旱地拔葱"。再次,价格脱离常规。如果这只股票长期以来都在20元、21元来回振荡,有一天突然多涨1块钱,一定会大涨。
  5 懒人操作术
  会卖股票才是真本事。对于繁忙的上班族来说,想要不花太多时间也能赚钱,可以使用懒人操作术。即每周抽一个时间,随便选5只股票,并均设立10%止损位。过一周后进行统计,只留下涨得最好的第一名和第二名,其他全部卖掉。然后再随便补充三只股票,让数量达到5只,过一周后再如此操作。用这种方法就能强迫自己留下最好的股票。因为对绝大多数投资者来说,会卖掉已经赚钱的最好的股票,往往留下跌得最多的股票,以求"解套",这是错误的做法。
  6 地心引力指标
  (30日移动平均线+72日移动平均线)/2就是大盘指数的"地心引力指标"。以此线为标准,涨过10%就跑,跌过10%就买入,准确率可达到95%.个股则因为有庄家相对麻烦。对于个股,也可以通过此方法划出"地心引力指标",并同时配合成交量的"旱地拔葱"来作出判断。
  7 1/2法
  根据统计。如一只股票从30元开始上涨到60元,那么45元(即:(30+60)/2)就是股价的第一个强烈支撑点,如果45元支撑不住,意味着该股票走入弱势格局。第二道关卡则是37.5元,(即:(30+45)/2),一旦跌破则是熊的开始。个股如此,大盘也如此。一旦这只股票跌破第二道关卡,就要坚决出货。通过补仓摊低成本是不对的。反弹也可以通过此方法来判断。如60元的股票下跌到30元,则第一道反弹关卡是45元,若反弹超过45元还往上涨,就是强势反弹。第二道关口则是52.5元(即:(60+45)/2),如超过则进入牛市。虽然市场不是100%绝对,但长期来看1/2法非常有价值

Friday, June 13, 2008

Finance Asia - Asia Best Manage Company

Finance Asia - For our eighth annual poll of Asia's top companies we have collected votes from 167 investors and analysts across the region. The results will be published country by country over a two-week period and the final day will also reveal which companies are viewed to be the best managed in the region in eight key sectors.

Here are the results for Malaysia.


Best managed companyVotes
1. Public Bank39
2. CIMB24
3. IOI Corp21
4. Genting18
5. Digi14
6. Maybank14
7. Petronas Gas11
8. SP Setia10
9. BAT Malaysia9
Best corporate governanceVotes
1. Public Bank46
2. CIMB25
3. Digi20
4. Maybank16
5. BAT Malaysia13
6. IOI Corp12
7. Telekom Malaysia10
8. Media Prima8
9. MMC Corp7
Best investor relationsVotes
1. Public Bank36
2. Digi31
3. CIMB26
4. Sime Darby23
5. Maybank13
6. Tanjong10
7. Media Prima8
8. Genting8
Most committed to a strong dividend policyVotes
1. Public Bank47
2. BAT Malaysia36
3. Maybank18
4. Tanjong16
5. IOI Corp15
6. Petronas Gas5
Best mid-capVotes
1. Media Prima17
2. Air Asia13
Best small-capVotes
1. Masteel13
2. Deleum9
Best CFOVotes
1. Gerard Nathan (Tanjong)17
2. Stefan Carlsson (Digi)11