Thursday, October 30, 2008

Is Dow Jones reach bottom?

Base on the last 20 days chat, there's yet to see the break out! Yesterday Fed cut rate by 1%, market respond was closed down 74 points.
So far, we could see double bottom already form. What we need to see is break out of 9200 points. If market turn south, it would down to next 8100 strong support level.

For record purpose:
Gold price = 752
Oil = 66.

18 days after crash of Dow Jones

 This is the most scary market – one of my friend told me yesterday. Dow Jones Industry Index continuously down for 8 days without rebound. The record as below:

-19, -348, -157, -369, -508, -189, -678, -128

As of Oct 10, 2008, DJI closed at 8451, compare to 8 days ago 10,700. This indicate a down of 21% just in 8 days. For the next 10 days, only 2 of the days rebound, the rest all at down side. At the time of writing this article, Oct 27, 2008, DJI broke another low record of 8256. Seem that market had not found the bottom. According to one of the market watches, this is due to hedge fund and investor fear of worldwide recession.

Actually, if the properly burble came from US and Europe, there should be no reason for Asia to follow the down trend. However, what we see now is Asia also follow the same down trend. The only reason can explain was 2 years of Bull Market already came to the extend that it’s time and good reason for investor to leave the market for now. In US, we saw many big bank and Insurance Company file bankrupt due to burst of subprime burble. US government injected 700 billions into market but seem no sign of recovery. We notice these few days’ market very volatile; the high and low range can record 900 points!

 When the bad news came and market continue to go south, it’s the sign of bottom yet to be seen. However, few strange points would like to high light here for future record purpose.

The USD become stronger compares to EUR or others major currency. With the interest rate continue to go down, rising of USD seem to be no reason. The only point to explain could be investors think that holding other currencies might faced bigger risk compare to USD. Another point worth a look is JPY broke the 13 years high record against USD.

 On the commodity side, Gold and Oil price also record  year low of 713 / ounce and 63 / barrel. Tomorrow, I will post the chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average for purpose of studying if bottom already reach.

 Quote of the Day  

"I've never bought a stock unless, in my view, it was on sale."  - John Neff