Monday, July 27, 2009

A lesson for those Greed and Fear in Stock Market

Stanford was a guy living in 70 century, he used to work as government servent cum tempolary actor. He feel the life was plain with no achievement. In one of the holiday season, he visited his uncle, who was a fund manager. He always heard his uncle's discussion with clients about which stock to buy or sell and how much they have earned. Since then, he had fall in love with stock market with believing that he can become a millionaire by investing in stock market.

After Stanford returned to New York, he managed to save for 10 thousand and he decided to buy Public Film holding at USD10. In 1974, Standford very happy with this transaction as he knew from his uncle's conversation with their clients, Public Film Holding had a very good business prospect with good future earning. He also feel that the buying timing was correct as the stock already fall from 30 plus to 10 USD now, it must be a very good opportunity to buy at this price.

One month later, Public Film Holding stock price drop till USD8, Stanford feel it's must be bottom now, rebound will happen very soon. So, he decided to buy more stock by borrowing USD20,000 personal loan from a bank. However, it caught him by surprise, as the Public Film Holding's stock keep on dropping till USD5. At that time, he calculated and noticed paper lost of USD twenty over thousand already incurred. He had lost all his saving and own a bank more that 10 thousands. He was now in a cross road pending deciding to sell or not to sell the stock. More bad news coming, the stock price now fell further to USD4 and the bank had sent out notice to chase for his loan payment. Stanford feel very up set and think of ending his life. He kept on drinking day after day till one day accidentally drop to a drain, broke this leg and admitted to hospital.

His uncle came to visit him in hospital and try to understand what was actually the problem.
Since Standford was his only relative, his uncle help him to settle the bank's borrowing. His uncle gave him an advise, TRADING IN STOCK NEED "PATIENT". DO NOT GREED, DO NOT BUY IN ONE TIME, WHEN THE CONDITION UNCLEAR, DO NOT TRADE... Stanford lost faith with stock market now, he told his uncle he want to sell all his stock and do not want to touch the stock market anymore. His uncle laught again and told him, DON'T NEED TO AFRAID WITH STOCK MARKET, SELLING NEED "PATIENT" AS WELL, when the stock price near bottom, should not sell just for reason of avoid loses. Even if you sell now, not much money you will can recover. Since you do not want to touch the stock anymore, just treat you have through away the stock. His uncle want him to promise this and send him a greeting card every Christmas to inform him that the Public Firm Holding's stock not yet sell.

Years after years, Standford follow what he had promised, send his uncle a greeting card every year, with wishing "Merry Christmas! Public Film Holding yet to sell!" His uncle will return a greeting card, written on "Merry Christmas... forget about Public Film Holding stock". Nine years later, as usual, Standford sent his uncle a greeting card, but this time his uncle return with an unusual wording, "Go and Sell the Public Film Holding now! It would be your most surprise Christmas gift!" On next day, Standford noticed from the dealer that Public Film Holding stock price had rose from US4.50 to USD74, about 17 times, compare to 9 years ago. This had never include the dividend that was paid on yearly basis. He sold all the stock and take back more than 900 thousand! Think of what's a silly action he may take 9 years ago... now he really understand what his uncle mean by "TRADING IN STOCK NEED "PATIENT".

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Dow Jones - Head and Shoulders


Recent and today's trading indicate the market turn week now, especially for Dow Jones Industrial Average. First it formed left shoulder, follow by head and last Friday right shoulder. Today's trading seem to touch support level and potential down side already formed. The chances are very high for market to go south and confirm this round of Bull run / rebound near "The End" of story.