Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Some snippets about TENAGA (TNB)

TNB is the only electric power provider in Malaysia, the business is monopoly but they can not simply raise the price. My father was ex-worker from TNB, hence I know TNB since the first day of listing when I was studied at form six. Bursa market was so hot during 1992 bull run (that time know as KLSE), it came to record high of 1300+ points in one year. TNB IPO price was $4.50, it went to $7.20 on first day of listing. In few months time, TNB went to record high of $20. Then one day, out of sudden, it drop to RM15.50. One week later, TNB close at RM10. In the next one to two year, TNB ranging from $7 to $10.
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One of my father's friend, Mr Lim, he bought some TNB share at $9. He added more when it drop to $8. When TNB drop to $7, he bought again but with more lots than before. That time, I don't understand the method, but later I noticed this is call Cost Average Down. In 1994 to 1995, people seem to forget about previous pain, TNB share price reached $12+ again and Mr Lim disposed all TNB shares after holding for 1 and half years.
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The market was almost flag till 1997 when a currency crisis occurred. One day morning, rumors came from Thailand and spread all over Asia countries. During that time, we noticed a group of fund managers started to create panic environment in the country by keep on selling and caused KLSE index drop 40 to 50 points in 2 days. One week later, market started feel the panic and fell even more. Add to the worse, Ringgit kept on falling against USD, until one time reached $4.50 per USD. Many people panic, worry and start to dump shares at what ever price available. Some even ask if value of share can fall to Zero?
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TNB started to fall from $10, people buy at $8, some at $7. One month later, the price was $6.50, where Mr Lim started to place buy order with minimum lots. The following few months, more people feel the pain and dump the shares like no tomorrow. Mr Lim continued place buy order at $5.50, $4.50, $4, $3.50 till the lowest price $2.50. On 1 September 1998, ex PM Dr Mahathir announced several action and economy stipulated package, including peg Ringgit at 3.80 / USD and arrested Anwar. KLSE suddenly reversed and surged more than 100 points. TNB also surged from $4.50 to $5.60. The next day, TNB closed at $6.50. Those who cut loss already missed the boat as they dare not buy at $2.50 or even $4.00. Also, they have no chance to buy back as the market turn was unexpected and fast.
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Mr Lim started to disposed TNB in 2001/ 2002 when the price range from $10 to $12, with the holding period of 3 years plus. There was no other big event until 2008, US trigger another financial crisis. The Dow index fell from 12,000+ to 6,000+. Nobody really believed that the market can fall continuously for 7 days which sent Dow to 9,000+. Market follow by few days up and few days down, but the overall trend was down. The down trend continue for about 11 months plus in the whole world. TNB also fell from $10+ to $4+, but this time I loss contact with Mr Lim, as he already migrated to other country and I did not know if he bought any shares.
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Base on last few time's trading record, seem Mr Lim will start to buy TNB if it fell 40% from the average price before big fall. Let say $10 was average price before the fall, the 40% is about $6, assume he averaging down till $4.50, his average price would be around $5. He then will sell the share during the next cycle bull run. If this is true then he could have sold TNB around $7+ in the last 2 years.
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Recently, there's another new crisis trigger by US, as of today Dow Index already fell continuously since beginning of August 2011 from 12,000+ to 10,855. TNB also fell from $7 to $5.55 right now. We may not know when is the highest and lowest for every cycle, but we can know near the bottom once it start to stable or rebound. I am sure the history will repeat again this time!
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4 comments:

  1. Vincent, now is the time to buy TNB ??

    ReplyDelete
  2. As usual, try not to predict the market. I can not tell if it's time to buy, since everyone also want to buy as low as possible. I will start to buy at this level and prepare to average down if the price go down some more just like Mr Lim. Some people's practice is buy when the price start to shoot up, it's ok provide you can act fast.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 我踩强强的场.

    回望2006年的国能风波,"阿尼阿罗日前在《星报》惊人揭露,他在1996年由于拒绝与独立发电厂签署不公平、不道德及损害国家利益的购电合约,导致他被开除。" -- 2006年6月新闻.

    我们的Dr M曾经让国能与独立发电厂签署耗损国家数十亿元财富的购电合约,创造了全世界储备电量最高的纪录.

    听说这样的合约是,不管独立发电厂提供多少电量,国能都必须买下.

    看看当时新闻: “这种合约是造成国能面对巨额亏损的主因,因为国能被迫每年支付33亿元给完全没用到或出售的电流。这种合约导致国能拥有40%的储电量,崛起成为全世界储电量最高的电力公司,而储备电量在中国、日本及欧洲只有5%。”

    电,是不能储存的东西,你没有用它,它就不见了.

    国能不需要这么多电量,却必须购买这么多,这就是浪费.浪费就会亏钱.亏钱就要提高电费.提高电费还是亏钱.

    为什么我们还要支持这样多不能说的秘密的公司?

    ReplyDelete
  4. 这买股票就和买罐装一样,我们不知道里面是什么东东,就这样你卖给我,我卖给他,买来卖去。只要里面的东西不要太烂就行了。
    何促Tenage是一间垄断的公司,人们说烂船也有三寸钉吧。。。:)

    ReplyDelete

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